Asked earlier if there would be a cut to the welfare bill before the next election, the chancellor said: ‘There will be a reduction in the benefits bill’
Since the start of 2025 Reform UK has been ahead of the Conservative party in the Politico poll of polls, a tracker which averages how the political parties are in surveys carried out by all the main polling organisations. Different polling companies use different methods, and so the poll of polls provides a reliable overview. Other poll of poll trackers are available, but Politico’s may be the most widely read in Westminster.
And today it has good news for the Conservatives. For the first time since early 2025, they have regained their lead over Reform UK.
Debt interest spending is now forecast to reach £147bn in 2029-30, £13bn more than in March. This leaves debt interest spending at 4.1 per cent of GDP in 2029-30 (and peaking marginally higher at 4.14 per cent in 2031-32, the highest on record since 1956-57) and above the total expected spend on universal credit, Housing Benefit and Child Benefit combined in that year.
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