Thirty years. Eighty years, and even 90. Some of the positions Democratic candidates won in Tuesday’s midterm elections, from Senate seats to attorneys-general, have not had a blue occupant in decades. The outcome of this election, even more than the 2018 midterms, could reshape American politics and policy for years to come. But if the Democrats are to make the most of their gains, they must be ambitious—even audacious.
The coming weeks will bring countless hot takes, deep dives, and data analyses. How did Democrats do it? What was the secret to their success in states like Kansas, South Carolina, and Texas? Which traditionally “red” voter cohorts turned “blue”? But the midterm results, like much of US politics over the last decade, come down to one constant: Donald Trump.
Trump is the alpha and the omega of the MAGA era. Responsibility for the affordability crisis Americans are facing—a top priority driving the recent vote—falls squarely on his shoulders. His chaotic trade wars have driven up costs for big companies, small businesses, and ordinary consumers across the country, with the price of most products rising by about 3 per cent as a result of his tariffs.
His war of choice in Iran—from the 2025 bombing of the country’s nuclear facilities to the large-scale attacks that have fueled geopolitical turmoil and halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026—drove up prices further, especially for fertilizer and diesel fuel.
The result has been to alienate a core Trump constituency: white rural voters. It does not help that Trump has shown utter disregard for the people who are struggling due to his actions, instead bragging about the oil and gas industry making a “frickin’ fortune.” With his behavior becoming increasingly erratic, a significant segment of his supporters have had enough. Many stayed home on Tuesday, while some cast votes for Democrats.
Independent voters, for their part, overwhelmingly backed the Democrats. But far from blindly celebrating this outcome, the incoming majority should view it as a cautionary tale. These swing voters are now negatively polarized: they vote for the party with which they are the least upset. They could easily turn against the Democrats in 2028 if they are not convinced to stick around.
While anger at Trump was the main variable shaping the election’s outcome, the Democrats benefited from the high quality of their candidates in most key races. In states like Kansas, Pennsylvania, and Texas, candidates matched the local spirit with the anger of an overwhelmed electorate. Here, again, the Democrats are at risk of learning the wrong lesson: when the party’s moderate wing claims credit for flipping red states, it overlooks that the US remains in an anti-establishment, populist economic era.
Many of the Democratic winners, such as Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, are self-described populists. Speaking to the New York Times before the election, Hinojosa observed that focusing on cultural issues was a trap and not what voters were looking for in 2026. She then ran a campaign that focused on Texans’ economic concerns, ousting Greg Abbott, who had spent the last 12 years concentrating political and administrative authority in his own hands, pandering to wealthy and corporate donors, and rigging the state’s congressional-district maps in Republicans’ favor.
Populism, especially economic populism, gives professional Democrats hay fever. They find it aesthetically off-putting and incompatible with the dying neoliberal economic order to which they remain stubbornly devoted. But they will have to get over it. The time has come for the Democratic Party to cast aside institutional caution and broaden its ambition.
AI is a good starting point. Contrary to the narrative that tech firms and their army of consultants have been pushing, American voters do, in fact, hate data centers. They also understand that unfettered AI development poses economic, social, and existential risks. If Congressional Democrats bow to Big Tech, they will soon find themselves back where they were two years ago.
At the state level, new Democratic governors must understand the nature of their own power. To wait for a divided Washington to get things done while Trump still occupies the White House is to waste time. They should hit the ground running with bold, creative agendas that focus not just on bringing costs down, but also on pushing wages up. The affordability crisis is actually a money crisis.
Over the next 18 months, the field for new ideas, systemic and economic, in the US will be the most open it is likely to be for decades. US voters have dealt Trump a sharp rebuke, which Democrats—indeed, all Americans—should celebrate. But the Democratic Party’s elation will need to cool and harden into determination. Where we are today is not where we need to be, nor is it where Americans expect to find themselves tomorrow, next year, or five years from now.
This article was originally published on Project Syndicate and has been reproduced here with permission.
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