As Americans gear up for the November 3 mid-term polls to elect Representatives and Senators, an uneasy peace prevails in the Middle East. President Trump's wish list for a deal with Iran – under which the Islamic Republic would give up its enriched uranium and provide safe passage for the superpower to exit the volatile region – remains unrealised. Hectic diplomatic efforts by Qatar and Pakistan have yet to bear fruit. Iran remains adamant that the US must exit the region, as the latter stands badly bruised by the losses it incurred in the war.
American military assets stand depleted in the Middle East, with many key military bases heavily degraded by recent conflict. Coupled with this is the reality of Israel being unable to unilaterally defend itself, as its Iron Dome air defence system has been severely overwhelmed. Last but not least is the reluctance of Doha and Riyadh to back any new military adventurism by Washington against Tehran.
This paints a paradoxical security dilemma wherein the Gulf Arab states that once depended on US military muscle are now on their own. On a positive note, a trans-regional security nexus is in the making. The trilateral Makkah Agreement and the recently-signed four-nation Badr Pact – comprising Pakistan, Türkiye, Qatar and Indonesia – are spontaneous responses to this shift. By focusing on joint military production and technical R&D, these nations have emerged as a formidable deterrent force.
Yet, Washington's jingoism and lack of a consistent policy remain a major point of concern. All signs indicate the region is heading back toward a major conflagration. Reports from across the Atlantic that the US wants to nail down Iran as a point-scoring exercise before the midterms are deeply unnerving. The body language and rhetoric emerging from Iran's power corridors is one of defiance, and the IRGC has vowed "surprises" that could prove disastrous for American allies in the region. No such misadventure will bring an end to the war; instead, it would trigger a new geo-economic crisis and leave the region devastated to the core.
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