‘What does money from a Super PAC actually buy?’: our reporters are answering your election questions now
Who are the groups backing candidates in the midterms – and why? In our second live discussion ahead of the elections, Joseph Gedeon, Dara Kerr and Chris Stein are live now
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Sam_Jenks asks: The Republicans are better placed to take advantage of the supreme sourt ruling on spending in terms of the final advertising blitz, apparently outspending the Democrats by over $200 million. Is that enough to overcome factors like Trump’s low approval rating? Can a party who are clearly less popular than the opposition just brute force their way to victory if the spending deficit is large enough?
Chris: That’s the big question of these midterms, and one that can’t be answered definitively before we know the results. But here’s what I can say now: While some Democratic candidates are beating their opponents in fundraising at the candidate level, Republicans overall are expected to outspend Democrats in the cycle, when factoring in outside groups like Super Pacs. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll preserve their majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives — Kamala Harris outspent Donald Trump in 2024, and lost anyway. But the headwinds facing Republicans are really formidable, from Trump’s terrible approval ratings, to Democratic candidates’ strong performances in special election and primary turnout, to the price increases for gas and other staples caused by the Iran war. This piece I wrote this week goes deeper into those dynamics.
Chris: The legislation you are referring to, which is now known as the Save America Act, has passed the House of Representatives but not the Senate and thus has not been enacted, so none of its provisions will be implemented in time for the 3 November midterms. However, Donald Trump and his administration have attempted to put in place some of the act’s restrictions on voting via executive order. These efforts have not gone too well for him. Trump’s attempt to impose new restrictions on mail-in voting, for instance, was halted by the supreme court.
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