As renewed diplomatic efforts seek to bring an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine, the prospect of a negotiated settlement remains unlikely due to Russia’s irreconcilable territorial demands, competing visions of European security and an increasingly unpredictable and pro-Moscow US. For Mark Galeotti, Executive Director of Mayak Intelligence and Honorary Professor at University College London’s School of Slavonic and East European Studies, Moscow’s maximalist vision conceals a more complex negotiating strategy. And the territorial dispute over Donbas presents a particularly formidable obstacle. Putin’s determination to claim control over the entirety of the region confronts Ukraine’s refusal to surrender territory it continues to hold.
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